. Rice at times has hit into poor luck, and his expected numbers reflect just how much he is crushing the ball.
His average exit velocity is in the top 5 percent of the league. His expected slugging percentage is in the top 3 percent. It’s more than natural ability, too. Rowson raved about the 25-year-old’s preparation, saying, “For such a young hitter, he’s light years ahead of where most guys with his time would be.” (Weaver/Rosenthal - Sep 19, 2025- The Athletic)
Rice's hallmark has always been strong plate discipline and bat- to-ball skills. The results have been strikeout and walk rates of roughly 19% and 13%. He was also one of just three minor leaguers with 20 or more homers and fewer than 70 strikeouts.
The lefty hitter hits the ball quite hard, with average (91) and 90th percentile (104) exit velocities that ranked among the best in the system. His barrel accuracy was also excellent. When he’s going bad, Rice has a tendency to hook balls. To fix the problem, the Yankees worked with him to keep his body in the proper position to stay behind pitches and drive them across the field. (Josh Norris - Baseball America Prospect Handbook - Spring, 2024)
In 2023, his breakout season, Rice hit .324/.434/.615 with 20 home runs in 73 games, most of them at Double-A Somerset. In his time in the Eastern League, he started 24 games at catcher, 14 at first base and another nine at DH.
“I wouldn’t say you expect those numbers, but capable, yes,” Ben said. “It’s knowing what I’m doing well and keeping that consistency—a lot of contact, hitting it hard, keep making good decisions and staying true to my approach." (Mike Ashmore - Baseball America - Nov., 2023)
July 6, 2024: The young first baseman became the first rookie in Yankees history to homer three times in a single game, doing so while driving in seven to help his team snap a four-game losing streak in a 14-4 win over the Red Sox.
2025 Season: Rice is coming off a promising sophomore campaign, showcasing how his intriguing left-handed power plays with the short, right porch in the Bronx. Rice hit .255/.337/.499 with 26 home runs in 467 at-bats. While these numbers are already exceptional, this only scratches the surface of what Rice is capable of.
According to Baseball Savant, Rice’s metrics are elite, sitting in the 90th percentile and above in xWOBA, xSLUG, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, launch-angle sweet spot and chase
. His expected batting average is .299 compared to his actual average of .255, which suggests he’s been unlucky.
Rice has clear untapped potential
. Given his stellar metrics, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Yankees made him their everyday first baseman. However, that might be a bad idea.
The Yankees’ four-game loss to the Blue Jays in the ALDS was just the latest edition of their annual disappointment, which has plagued them since their last World Series title in 2009
. And if nothing changes, we can’t expect a different outcome.
In the postseason, Rice wasn’t exactly the middle-of-the-order bat the Yankees needed, going 4-for-18 with two walks and eight strikeouts, though he did hit one of the team’s six home runs. While there is always the chance he can mature as a hitter, the Yankees have a lot they need to improve on, and there are some appealing first base options on the free agent market.
Among the top first basemen up for grabs are Josh Naylor, Pete Alonso, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, and Ryan O’Hearn
. If the Yankees were to ignore this thriving first-base market, this would greatly limit their ability to improve.
Would acquiring another first baseman mean letting go of Rice? Not necessarily, the Yankees just need to develop him as a catcher and move Austin Wells into the backup role. In his second full year, Wells has shown no improvement at the plate, hitting .219/.275/.436 with 21 home runs. If the Yankees sign an impact bat and replace Wells with Rice – or at least platoon them, since Wells is satisfactory against lefties – this would greatly improve their production.
Developing Rice as a backstop might not be an easy task, because he hasn’t yet displayed much prowess behind the plate
. Still, if the Yankees can pull it off, this could be the difference between returning to the World Series and more familiar disappointment. (Jacob Mountz | Oct 16, 2025 - Yardbarker)